We're floating in the ether right now. That's how this week's conversation started, and honestly, it captures the mood perfectly. After our longest break since launching Talent Grind Live back in March, we dove straight into the uncomfortable truth that's been staring us in the face: 2025 is shaping up to be a mess.
The Wall Street Journal Called It
The headline says it all: "The US Economy is headed towards an uncomfortable summer." Companies are freezing hiring and investment to deal with shifting tariff policies, and we've been talking about this for months. It's finally gaining mainstream credence, but for those of us in the trenches of talent and recruiting, this isn't news—it's been our reality.
The surface numbers look decent enough. The job market added around 139,000 jobs in May, unemployment sits around 4%. But anyone with understanding of the nuances and complexity of the labor market knows that 4% number is total horse shit.
It doesn't measure:
People who've given up and fallen out of the employment pool
The underemployed driving DoorDash and Lyft
The real unemployment rate, which sits closer to 25%
The Personal Reality Check
Alex shared his perspective from six weeks of being "on the market"—not unemployed by choice, but actively looking. His take? There are plenty of roles at the senior level, especially in AI companies that are trying to grow. But that's the bubble talking. The labor report shows jobs are down compared to last year, and the cracks are showing everywhere.
Meanwhile, we're hearing stories from New York City about companies struggling to fill entry-level communications roles. The quality of pipeline is terrible, and it's not just about skills—it's about attitude. Young candidates asking about overtime for working weekends or past 7 PM. Sometimes you just want someone with good attitude who will make it work.
The Policy Chaos Factor
Here's what's really wearing us down: businesses are hitting pause on hiring and investment due to policy uncertainty. We're talking about tariffs, trade wars, and what feels like market manipulation for people with big pots of money.
As one economist put it: "Corporate America is less sure about the future than ever, and the economy is still frozen in place."
Business thrives on consistency. It doesn't want to be shocked, and we're being shocked constantly. Confidence is ethereal—when it's good, everyone feels the vibe. When it's shattered, everything freezes.
The Networking Fatigue
Even our approach to professional connection is broken. Talent acquisition leaders are overfed on breakfast meetings and free dinners. Everyone wants to speak to TA leaders, but they're getting hit from all sides with the same tired formats.
The key insight? We need to think differently about events and engagement. The post-COVID world is still being reformed, and what worked before just doesn't work anymore.
The Bottom Line
We've been floating in the ether, talking about economic uncertainty for months while watching the job market contract beneath seemingly stable surface numbers. The summer of 2025 is shaping up to be uncomfortable, and the policy chaos isn't helping anyone except those positioned to benefit from market volatility.
The real question isn't whether we can weather this storm—it's how we adapt to a fundamentally changed landscape where the old rules no longer apply.
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This post was created from our Talent Grind Live session with Michael Doran and Alex Mann on June 12, 2025.
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